Area Forecast Discussion for Buffalo, NY

PaulSadowski.com

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
638 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z THE POST COLD FRONTAL SWATH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY PROGRESSED
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN. A STRAIGHT
FORWARD FORECAST TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE JUST SLIGHT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS WITH WARMEST
READINGS JUST ABOVE 60 IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND LAKE ONTARIO PLAIN.
FLOW ALOFT STILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC WITH A WEAK VORT MAX
SLIDING EASTWARD MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. CAN`T RULE OUT SHOWERS NORTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT OUR REGION SHOULD BE JUST FINE.

DRY AIR CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER OUR REGION. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT
WE SPOKE OF IN YESTERDAY`S OVERNIGHT DISCUSSION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CONSIDERING THE LOW DEW POINTS AND LITTLE SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S DOWN
TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDEST RURAL VALLEYS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO AND INLAND FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW VERY
SUBTLE FEATURES TO BE CONCERNED WITH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WITH AN OLD
STALLED OUT BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ALL OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/GEM KEEP PRECIP WELL SOUTH
OF THE PA/NY STATE LINE. LATEST 21Z SREF PAINTS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER WITH 30-40 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRINGING PRECIP FARTHER NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY JUST SIMPLY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE LOWER GRID RESOLUTION OF
THE SREF ENSEMBLE SYSTEM...PRODUCING AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE
FOOTPRINT TO THE PRECIP SHIELD. GIVEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST RIGHT
NOW IN CONTINUITY...FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AND CONTINUE
TO MONITOR SREF TRENDS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ALSO CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY MUCH OF THE
CWA...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECT A
DRY/WEAK FROPA.

TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH A GENERAL SYNOPTIC
SCALE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.

ON MONDAY A RE-ENFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND PROVIDE ANOTHER DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE ALONG THE STALLED OUT
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER. NEW 00Z GFS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ITS LAST
RUN IN TAKING THIS NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE
EVENING...THEN DIMINISH POPS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. 00Z GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE OLD 12Z ECMWF
AND GEFS MEAN SUGGEST WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING PRECIP INTO WESTERN NY AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THIS IS STILL 5-7 DAYS OUT...WILL JUST
MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY FOR NOW WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GREATER DETAIL IN TIMING CAN BE OFFERED AS THE
EVENT NEARS. TEMPS APPEAR TO RECOVER TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 11Z THE RAIN HAD CLEARED OUR ENTIRE CWA. EXPECT A CLEARING
TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL PROBLEM COULD BE SOME
PATCHY MVFR WITH FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER TOMORROW MORNING. KJHW WILL POSSIBLY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN LOW STRATUS IN FOG BETWEEN 06 THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 2 FEET BY MID
MORNING. GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE THE RULE FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WINDS AVERAGING SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND
WAVES UNDER 2 FEET.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...SAGE
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
AVIATION...SAGE
MARINE...HITCHCOCK


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    Page last modified: Aug 26th, 2008 18:04 UTC

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